Hierarchical binary logit model to compare driver injury severity in single-vehicle crash based on age-groups

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2021 Mar;28(1):113-126. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2020.1858113. Epub 2020 Dec 11.

Abstract

Most of the previous single-vehicle crash analysis studies ignored the effect of road-segments level at higher plan that could probably be unobserved heterogeneity and vary among crash-level factor from one road-segment to next and possibly could lead to a potential biased estimated result. This study developed a hierarchical binary logit model which have the ability to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and correlation within road-segment, to investigate and compare the impact of significant factors influencing fatal single-vehicle crash between young, mid-age and old driver model. A seven-years from 2011 to 2017 crash data, Department of Highway (DOH), Thailand were used in this study. The Intra-Class-Correlation values indicate the importance of road-segment level that 10.1%, 12.2% and 12.8% of the total variation were accounted by random effect from road-segment heterogeneity for young, mid-age and old driver model, respectively. The estimated result of this study shows that influence of alcohol and fatigue increase risk of fatal crash among young and old driver, seatbelt-usage reduce risk of being fatal among mid-age and old driver, roadside safety feature (guardrail) significantly reduce fatality risk among young and mid-age driver, and night time driving without light increase probability of fatal crash for mid-age driver. This study recommends the need to enforce the law on driver under influence of alcohol and seatbelt usage, educational campaign on driving, and installation of guardrail on curve road.

Keywords: Hierarchical binary logit model; age-group; driver injury severity; single-vehicle crash.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / trends*
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality / trends*
  • Safety
  • Thailand
  • Trauma Severity Indices*
  • Wounds and Injuries / classification*
  • Young Adult