The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is the largest estuary in China. Recently, due to the increase of extent and frequency, saltwater intrusion has received more and more attention. In this paper, with the adoption of hydrodynamic and salinity transport mode, quantitative research of the influence of river discharge to the North Branch (NB) of the Yangtze River on the saltwater group migration law is conducted. Tide and salinity data are used to validate the model effectively. In different paths, the changes in flow and the movement of the saltwater group are similar. The saltwater group starts to move downward from the sixth day. In the staged downward movement, the larger the runoff volume, the further the distance of the core of the saltwater group, and converges to around 90 km gradually. At different flow rates, the relationship between the average location of each waterway saltwater group core tide cycle and time is consistent with the Gompertz model, and its parameters had a nonlinear relationship with the flow rate. A function is constructed to calculate the length and time of the saltwater group migration. As the flow rate increases, the faster the core of the saltwater group reaches the entrance. The downwards movement takes 3-8 days. Quantitative research on the influence of the saltwater spilling from NB to the three major reservoirs in the South Branch (SB)is conducted. The simulation results are consistent with the function calculation. River discharge has a direct impact on saltwater transport and diffusion in the YRE.
Keywords: Gompertz model; MIKE21; river discharge; saltwater group; the Yangtze river estuary; transport pattern.