Objective: To analyze the disease burden of liver cancer in China. Methods: Based on eight data sources, including the series of Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, three national death cause surveys in China, China Health Statistical Yearbook, China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, GLOBOCAN, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), WHO Mortality Database and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), the information on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of liver cancer, were extracted for the analysis on the past, current and future disease burden caused by liver cancer in China. Results: 1) Past situation: The long-term data from 1973 to 2012 reported by the CI5 showed that in urban populations in China (taking Shanghai as an example), the incidence rate of liver cancer in males and females decreased by 41.3% and 36.3%, respectively, and that in rural areas (taking Qidong as an example) decreased by 32.3% and 12.2%, respectively. The Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Reports showed that the national incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer decreased by 8.1% and 12.8% respectively from 2005 to 2015. The Joinpoint analysis based on the data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook also showed a declining trend: the average annual percentage change of liver cancer mortality in China from 2002 to 2017 was -3.0% (P<0.05), and that in rural areas was -3.1% (P<0.05). 2) Current status: GLOBOCAN estimates that the rates of incidence, mortality and prevalence of liver cancer in China in 2018 were 18.3 per 100 000, 17.1 per 100 000 and 10.8 per 100 000, respectively. According to the latest annual report, the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in cancer registration areas in 2015 were 17.6 per 100 000 and 15.3 per 100 000, respectively, and both increased with age. The mortality rate was similar to that reported in 2017 (16.7 per 100 000) by the China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, and the male to female ratio of live cancer deaths was estimated as 3.1. The GBD 2017 reports that the DALYs caused by liver cancer in China reached 11 153.0 thousand in 2017 (accounting for 53.7% of the global DALYs) and hepatitis B virus infection was always the leading cause. 3) Prediction: The GLOBOCAN 2018 predicts that, by 2040, the number of liver cancer cases and deaths in China would reach 591 000 and 572 000 (with an increase of 50.5% and 54.9%, respectively, compared with those in 2018), with a more significant increase in people over 70 years old. 4) Economic burden: According to the literature review of economic burden data on liver cancer, the direct medical expenditure per patient with liver cancer generally showed a rising trend. Conclusions: Multiple data sources indicate that the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in populations in China decreased in the past decades, indicating the effect of population interventions. However, the population-level disease burden are still substantial, and comprehensive intervention strategies need to be continually strengthened and optimized, especially the primary and secondary prevention.
目的： 分析我国肝癌疾病负担。 方法： 基于《中国肿瘤登记年报》、全国三次死因回顾性调查、《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》、《中国死因监测数据集》、GLOBOCAN、五大洲癌症发病率（CI5）、WHO死亡数据库、全球疾病负担项目（GBD）国内外8个数据源，摘录我国人群肝癌的发病、死亡和伤残调整生命年（DALY）等信息，分析肝癌疾病负担既往、现况及预期。 结果： ①既往：CI5 1973-2012年的长期数据显示，我国城市（以上海市为例）男、女性肝癌发病率分别下降41.3%和36.3%，农村（以启东市为例）分别下降了32.3%和12.2%；近10年年报也显示2005-2015年全国发病和死亡率分别下降8.1%和12.8%；基于年鉴数据的Joinpoint分析也提示下降：2002-2017年全国死亡率平均年度变化百分比为-3.0%（P<0.05）。②现况：GLOBOCAN估计2018年我国肝癌发病率、死亡率和1年患病率分别为18.3/10万、17.1/10万和10.8/10万；最新年报显示，2015年肿瘤登记地区发病和死亡率分别为17.6/10万和15.3/10万，且均随年龄上升；监测数据报道2017年全国死亡率与之接近（16.7/10万），男女死亡比为3.1。GBD报道2017年我国肝癌所致DALY达1 115.3万人年，占全球的53.7%，HBV感染始终居归因首位。③预测：GLOBOCAN 2018预测至2040年我国肝癌发病和死亡例数将分别达到59.1万例和57.2万例，分别比2018年增加50.5%和54.9%，>70岁人群增幅明显。④经济负担：相关文献汇总显示，基于个体的研究报道的例均直接医疗费用呈上升趋势。 结论： 多数据源均显示，我国人群肝癌发病和死亡率在数十年间有所下降，提示人群干预的有效性；但人群负担依然沉重，应继续加强优化一、二级预防为主的综合干预策略。.
Keywords: Burden of disease; Incidence; Liver cancer; Mortality; Prediction.