We propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency, mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) and fraction of population engaging in physical distancing that lower the basic reproduction number ℜ 0 to unity. Conclusions: For ℜ 0 = 2.5, if at least 40% of people wear masks with efficiency 50%, and at least 20% of the population without masks (or anti-maskers) respect physical distancing measures, the effective reproduction number can be reduced to less than 1 and COVID-19 infections would plummet. The model predicts also that if at least half of the people respecting physical distancing, COVID-19 outbreaks with ℜ 0 of about 3, would be theoretically extinguished without wearing masks. The results of this study provide an alternative explanation for the spread of the disease, and suggest some valuable policy recommendations about the control strategies applied to mitigate disease transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19; SIR compartmental model; basic reproduction number; mask protection; social distancing.
© 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.