The effect of cold and heat waves on mortality in Urmia a cold region in the North West of Iran

Abstract

Few studies have investigated the different extreme temperature effects (heat-cold) of one geographical location at the same time in Iran. This study was conducted to assess the impact of heat and cold waves on mortality in Urmia city, which has a cold and mountainous climate. Distributed Lag Non-linear Models combined with a quasi-Poisson regression were used to assess the impact of heat (HW) and cold waves (CW) on mortality in subgroups, controlled for potential confounders such as long-term trend of daily mortality, day of week effect, holidays, mean temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pollutants. The heat/cold effect was divided into two general categories A-main effect (the effect caused by temperature), B-added effect (the effect caused by persistence of extreme temperature). Results show that there was no relation between HW and respiratory and cardiovascular death, but in main effects, HW_(H1) significantly increased, the risk of Non-Accidental Death (NAD) in lag 0 (Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) _NAD = 31(CI; 4-65)). Also in added effects, HW had a significant effect on NAD (CER _{H1; NAD; lag;0-2} = 31(CI; 5, 51), CER _{H2; NAD; lag;0-2} = 26(CI; 6, 48)). There was no relation between CW and respiratory death and cardiovascular death, but in added effects, CW_(C1) significantly decreased, the risk of non-accidental death in initial lags (CER _{C1; NAD; lag;0-2} = -19 (CI; -35, -2)). It seems that high temperatures and heat waves increase the risk of non-accidental mortality in northwest of Iran.

Keywords: Cold wave; Extreme temperature; Heat wave; Mortality; Temperature.