Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Qingan Wang; Yu Zhao; Yajuan Zhang; Jiangwei Qiu; Juan Li; Ni Yan; Nan Li; Jiaxing Zhang; Di Tian; Xiaolan Sha; Jinyun Jing; Chan Yang; Kairong Wang; Rongbin Xu; Yuhong Zhang; Huifang Yang; Shi Zhao; Yi Zhao

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.110576

Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Environ Res. 2021 Feb:193:110576. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110576. Epub 2020 Dec 3.

Authors

Qingan Wang¹, Yu Zhao¹, Yajuan Zhang¹, Jiangwei Qiu¹, Juan Li¹, Ni Yan¹, Nan Li¹, Jiaxing Zhang¹, Di Tian¹, Xiaolan Sha¹, Jinyun Jing¹, Chan Yang¹, Kairong Wang¹, Rongbin Xu², Yuhong Zhang¹, Huifang Yang¹, Shi Zhao³, Yi Zhao⁴

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750001, Ningxia, China; The Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control of Ningxia, Yinchuan, 750001, Ningxia, China.
² Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
³ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.
⁴ School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750001, Ningxia, China; The Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control of Ningxia, Yinchuan, 750001, Ningxia, China. Electronic address: zhaoyi751114@hotmail.com.

Abstract

Background: Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear.

Objectives: We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China.

Methods: The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number (R_t). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and R_t.

Results: There were 12,745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the associated effect of temperature on R_t is likely to be negative but not of statistical significance, which holds for most Chinese regions.

Conclusions: We found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19. Since intensive control measures against the COVID-19 epidemics were implemented in China, we acknowledge this may impact the underlying effect size estimation, and thus cautiousness should be taken when interpreting our findings.

Keywords: Ambient temperature; COVID-19; Ecological association; Transmissibility.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19*
China
Humans
Meteorological Concepts
SARS-CoV-2
Temperature