This work contributes to the literature in the field of innovation by proposing a quantitative approach for the prediction of the timing and location of patenting activity. In a recent work, it was shown that focusing on couples of technological codes allows for the formation of testable predictions of innovation events, defined as the first time two codes appear together in a patent. In particular, the construction of the vector space of codes and the introduction of the context similarity metric allows for a quantitative analysis of technological progress. Here, we move from that result and we show that, through context similarity, it is possible to assign to countries a score which measures the probability of being the first to patent a potential innovation. In other words, we show that we can not only estimate the likelihood that a potential innovation will be patented in the imminent future, but also forecast where it will be patented.
Keywords: economic studies; innovation; machine learning.