MPL resolves genetic linkage in fitness inference from complex evolutionary histories

Nat Biotechnol. 2021 Apr;39(4):472-479. doi: 10.1038/s41587-020-0737-3. Epub 2020 Nov 30.

Abstract

Genetic linkage causes the fate of new mutations in a population to be contingent on the genetic background on which they appear. This makes it challenging to identify how individual mutations affect fitness. To overcome this challenge, we developed marginal path likelihood (MPL), a method to infer selection from evolutionary histories that resolves genetic linkage. Validation on real and simulated data sets shows that MPL is fast and accurate, outperforming existing inference approaches. We found that resolving linkage is crucial for accurately quantifying selection in complex evolving populations, which we demonstrate through a quantitative analysis of intrahost HIV-1 evolution using multiple patient data sets. Linkage effects generated by variants that sweep rapidly through the population are particularly strong, extending far across the genome. Taken together, our results argue for the importance of resolving linkage in studies of natural selection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Computational Biology / methods*
  • Evolution, Molecular
  • Genetic Linkage
  • HIV Infections / virology*
  • HIV-1 / genetics*
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Genetic
  • Mutation*
  • Receptors, Thrombopoietin / genetics*
  • Selection, Genetic

Substances

  • Receptors, Thrombopoietin
  • MPL protein, human