It remains debatable whether vitamin D plays any role as a risk factor for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). We have summarized the effect of circulating 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration on the risk of developing T1DM via a dose-response meta-analysis. We undertook a database search on PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library from inception to January 2020. A meta-analysis based on random-effects model was applied. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to inspect the source of heterogeneity. Dose-response data were examined using the generalized least squares trend estimation method. This study was registered with the PROSPERO (ID: CRD42020166174). In total, 16 studies including 10,605 participants (3913 case patients) were included. The pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the highest versus the lowest 25(OH)D concentration was 0.39 (0.27, 0.57), with a high heterogeneity (I2 = 76.7%, P < 0.001). Meta-regression analysis identified latitude (P = 0.02), adjustment for gender (P = 0.001), and 25(OH)D stratification (P < 0.001) as sources of heterogeneity. Furthermore, the nonlinear dose-response analysis determined the OR (95% CI) of T1DM to be 0.91 (0.90, 0.93) per 10 nmol/L increase in the 25(OH)D concentration. A 'U'-shaped association was found between serum 25(OH)D concentration and risk of T1DM. The present study highlights the significant inverse association between the circulating 25(OH)D concentration and the risk of T1DM.
Keywords: 25-hydroxy vitamin D; Dose response; Insulin-dependent diabetes; Meta-analysis; Type 1 diabetes; Vitamin D.