Coupled models using radar network database to assess vehicular emissions in current and future scenarios

Janaina Antonino Pinto; Prashant Kumar; Marcelo Félix Alonso; Willian Lemker Andreão; Rizzieri Pedruzzi; Sérgio Ibarra-Espinosa; Felipe Marinho Maciel; Taciana Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143207

Coupled models using radar network database to assess vehicular emissions in current and future scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2021 Mar 20:761:143207. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143207. Epub 2020 Nov 7.

Authors

Janaina Antonino Pinto¹, Prashant Kumar², Marcelo Félix Alonso³, Willian Lemker Andreão⁴, Rizzieri Pedruzzi⁴, Sérgio Ibarra-Espinosa⁵, Felipe Marinho Maciel⁴, Taciana Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-010, Brazil; Institute of Integrated Engineering, Federal University of Itajubá, Itabira 35903-087, Brazil; Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.
² Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom.
³ Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas 96001-970, Brazil.
⁴ Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-010, Brazil.
⁵ Departament of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo University, Brazil; Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, PR China.
⁶ Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-010, Brazil; Department of Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória 29060-970, Brazil. Electronic address: taciana@desa.ufmg.br.

PMID: 33221009
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143207

Abstract

Vehicles are one of the most significant sources of air pollutant emissions in urban areas, and their real contribution always needs to be updated to predict impacts on air quality. Radar databases and traffic counts using statistical modeling is an alternative and low-cost approach to produce traffic activities data in each urban street to be used as input to predict vehicular emissions. In this work, we carried out a spatial statistical analysis of local radar data and calculated traffic flow using local radar data combined with different statistical models. Future scenarios about vehicle emission inventory to define public policies were also proposed and analyzed for Belo Horizonte (BH), a Brazilian State capital, with the third-largest metropolitan region in the country. The Normal-Neighborhood Model (i.e., the mixed effect model with random effect in the neighborhood, radar type, and in the regional area) was used to calculate traffic flow in each urban street. Results showed average reductions in CO (4.5%), NMHC (3.0%), NOx (3.0%) and PM_2.5 (6.2%) emissions even with an increase in fleet composition (25% in average). The decrease is a result of the implementation of emission control programs by the government, improvements vehicles technologies, and the quality of fuels. Prediction of traffic data from radar databases has proven to be useful for avoiding the high costs of performing origin-destination surveys and traffic modeling using commercial software. Radar databases can provide many potential benefits for research and analysis in environmental and transportation planning. These findings can be incorporated in future investigations to implement public policies on vehicular emission reduction in urban areas and to advance environmental health effects research and human health risk assessment.

Keywords: Mixed-effects model; Mobility solutions; Radar traffic data; Vehicular emission inventory.