A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues

William J Sutherland; Philip W Atkinson; Steven Broad; Sam Brown; Mick Clout; Maria P Dias; Lynn V Dicks; Helen Doran; Erica Fleishman; Elizabeth L Garratt; Kevin J Gaston; Alice C Hughes; Xavier Le Roux; Fiona A Lickorish; Luke Maggs; James E Palardy; Lloyd S Peck; Nathalie Pettorelli; Jules Pretty; Mark D Spalding; Femke H Tonneijck; Matt Walpole; James E M Watson; Jonathan Wentworth; Ann Thornton

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.014

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues

Trends Ecol Evol. 2021 Jan;36(1):87-97. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.014.

Authors

William J Sutherland¹, Philip W Atkinson², Steven Broad³, Sam Brown⁴, Mick Clout⁵, Maria P Dias⁶, Lynn V Dicks⁷, Helen Doran⁸, Erica Fleishman⁹, Elizabeth L Garratt¹⁰, Kevin J Gaston¹¹, Alice C Hughes¹², Xavier Le Roux¹³, Fiona A Lickorish¹⁴, Luke Maggs¹⁵, James E Palardy¹⁶, Lloyd S Peck¹⁷, Nathalie Pettorelli¹⁸, Jules Pretty¹⁹, Mark D Spalding²⁰, Femke H Tonneijck²¹, Matt Walpole²², James E M Watson²³, Jonathan Wentworth²⁴, Ann Thornton²⁵

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, UK.
³ TRAFFIC, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
⁴ Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK.
⁵ Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 90129 Auckland, New Zealand.
⁶ BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; MARE Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ISPA, Instituto Universitário, Lisboa, Portugal.
⁷ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
⁸ Natural England, Eastbrook, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8DR, UK.
⁹ College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
¹⁰ UK Research and Innovation, Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1EU, UK.
¹¹ Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
¹² Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna, Yunnan 666303, PR China.
¹³ Microbial Ecology Centre, UMR1418 INRAE, CNRS, University Lyon 1, VetAgroSup, 69622 Villeurbanne, France; BiodivERsA, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité, 195 rue Saint Jacques, 75005 Paris, France.
¹⁴ UK Research and Consultancy Services (RCS) Ltd, Valletts Cottage, Westhope, Hereford HR4 8BU, UK.
¹⁵ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff CF24 0TP, UK.
¹⁶ The Pew Charitable Trusts, 901 E St NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA.
¹⁷ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
¹⁸ Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
¹⁹ School of Life Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK.
²⁰ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; The Nature Conservancy, Department of Physical, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini, Siena 53100, Italy.
²¹ Wetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
²² Fauna and Flora International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
²³ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia; Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, NY 10460, USA.
²⁴ Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 14 Tothill Street, Westminster, London SW1H 9NB, UK.
²⁵ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 33213887
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.014

Abstract

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation; horizon scan.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity
Climate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Coral Reefs
Ecosystem*
Forecasting
Humans