Efficient artificial intelligence forecasting models for COVID-19 outbreak in Russia and Brazil

Mohammed A A Al-Qaness; Amal I Saba; Ammar H Elsheikh; Mohamed Abd Elaziz; Rehab Ali Ibrahim; Songfeng Lu; Ahmed Abdelmonem Hemedan; S Shanmugan; Ahmed A Ewees

doi:10.1016/j.psep.2020.11.007

Efficient artificial intelligence forecasting models for COVID-19 outbreak in Russia and Brazil

Process Saf Environ Prot. 2021 May:149:399-409. doi: 10.1016/j.psep.2020.11.007. Epub 2020 Nov 13.

Authors

Mohammed A A Al-Qaness¹, Amal I Saba², Ammar H Elsheikh³, Mohamed Abd Elaziz⁴, Rehab Ali Ibrahim⁴, Songfeng Lu⁵, Ahmed Abdelmonem Hemedan⁶, S Shanmugan⁷, Ahmed A Ewees^{8

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Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
² Department of Histology, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt.
³ Department of Production Engineering and Mechanical Design, Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt.
⁴ Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt.
⁵ School of Computer Science and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China.
⁶ Bioinformarics Core Luxebourg Centre For System Biomdeicine, Luxembourg University, Luxembourg.
⁷ Research Centre for Solar Energy, Department of Physics, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation, Green Fields, Guntur District, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh 522502, India.
⁸ Department of e-Systems, University of Bisha, Bisha 61922, Saudi Arabia.
⁹ Department of Computer, Damietta University, Damietta 34517, Egypt.

Abstract

COVID-19 is a new member of the Coronaviridae family that has serious effects on respiratory, gastrointestinal, and neurological systems. COVID-19 spreads quickly worldwide and affects more than 41.5 million persons (till 23 October 2020). It has a high hazard to the safety and health of people all over the world. COVID-19 has been declared as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Therefore, strict special policies and plans should be made to face this pandemic. Forecasting COVID-19 cases in hotspot regions is a critical issue, as it helps the policymakers to develop their future plans. In this paper, we propose a new short term forecasting model using an enhanced version of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). An improved marine predators algorithm (MPA), called chaotic MPA (CMPA), is applied to enhance the ANFIS and to avoid its shortcomings. More so, we compared the proposed CMPA with three artificial intelligence-based models include the original ANFIS, and two modified versions of ANFIS model using both of the original marine predators algorithm (MPA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The forecasting accuracy of the models was compared using different statistical assessment criteria. CMPA significantly outperformed all other investigated models.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Brazil; COVID-19; Chaotic marine predators algorithm; Forecasting; Optimization; Russia.