The local-scale expansion of Dermacentor reticulatus ticks in Lower Silesia, SW Poland

Abstract

The range of D. reticulatus is discontinuous in Europe, with a gap between the Western and Eastern European populations. Recent studies have shown, however, a decrease in the gap as a consequence of D. reticulatus spreading to new areas. This study aims to analyze the dynamic of local-scale changes in the D. reticulatus range in Lower Silesia, SW Poland. All sites of D. reticulatus presence recognized in our research were located in the north-western part of the study area (Wroclaw and its surroundings), whereas the south-eastern part was found to be free of these ticks. However, a five-year observation period (2014-2019) indicates the expansion of D. reticulatus on a local scale, with a general tendency to expand to the east, with northerly or southerly deviations from year to year. The settled sites differed in distance to the nearest built-up area, the density of resident population, as well as land development intensity in the immediate vicinity. The 100% probability isolines of D. reticulatus presence in Wroclaw and its surroundings allowed the determination of the rate of range change, which turned out to be uneven in terms of direction and speed. The average rate of change in the range of tick occurrence was estimated at 7 km in 3 years. A more accurate analysis of the estimated range changes-made using modeling and verification of predicted changes in the field-showed that the likely rate of range change can be estimated at around 0.6-2.3 km/year.

Keywords: Dermacentor reticulatus; Expansion; SW Poland; Spatial range; Tick.