Innovation, aging, and health care: Unraveling "silver" from "red" herrings?

Abstract

This perspective paper argues that a sustainable health system design encompasses identifying opportunities and incentives for innovation, alongside an analysis of its effect on expenditure. Although aging alone is not a powerful cost driver, the combined effect of costly innovation, personalized care, and the rise of chronic conditions is. We identify an increasing role of prevention, the reduction of the prevalence of chronic conditions, re-organisation of incentives in health care markerts, including a closer scrutiny of the appropriateness of new treatments.

Keywords: aging; appropiatness; comorbidities; health spending; innovation; red herring hypothesis.