Using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for mortality prediction in patients with chronic kidney disease

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health issue and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. How to identify the high-risk CKD patients is very important to improve the long-term outcome. CHADS₂ and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are clinically useful scores to evaluate the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, there was no literature discussing about the usefulness of CHADS₂ and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality prediction in CKD patients. This longitudinal study enrolled 437 patients with CKD. CHADS₂ and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated for each patient. CV and all-cause mortality data were collected for long-term outcome prediction. The median follow-up to mortality was 91 (25th-75th percentile: 59-101) months. There were 66 CV mortality and 165 all-cause mortality. In addition to age and heart rate, CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (both P value < 0.001) were significant predictors of CV and all-cause mortality in the multivariate analysis. Besides, in direct comparison of multivariate model, basic model + CHA₂DS₂-VASc score had a better additive predictive value for all-cause mortality than basic model + CHADS₂ score (P = 0.031). In conclusion, our study showed both of CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were significant predictors for long-term CV and all-cause mortality in CKD patients and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score had a better predictive value than CHADS₂ score for all-cause mortality in direct comparison of multivariate model. Therefore, using CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores to screen CKD patients may be helpful in identifying the high-risk group with increased mortality.