Population migration, confirmed COVID-19 cases, pandemic prevention, and control: evidence and experiences from China

Hualei Yang; Sen Hu; Xiaodong Zheng; Yuanyang Wu; Xueyu Lin; Lin Xie; Zheng Shen

doi:10.1007/s10389-020-01403-y

Population migration, confirmed COVID-19 cases, pandemic prevention, and control: evidence and experiences from China

Z Gesundh Wiss. 2022;30(5):1257-1263. doi: 10.1007/s10389-020-01403-y. Epub 2020 Oct 24.

Authors

Hualei Yang¹, Sen Hu², Xiaodong Zheng³, Yuanyang Wu¹, Xueyu Lin¹, Lin Xie⁴, Zheng Shen⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, 430073 China.
² School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044 China.
³ School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, No.18 Xuezheng Street, Xiasha New Higher Education Park, Hangzhou, 310018 Zhejiang People's Republic of China.
⁴ Institution of Population and Labor Economics, The Chinese Academy of Social Science, Beijing, 100028 China.
⁵ School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300 China.

Abstract

Aim: The virulence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has facilitated its rapid transition towards becoming a pandemic. Hence, this study aims to investigate the association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China while investigating its measures for pandemic prevention and control.

Subject and methods: A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dormancy (SEIRD) model for the spread of COVID-19 in China was created to theoretically simulate the relationship between the populations migrating from Wuhan and the number of confirmed cases. Data from Baidu's real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system were elicited to empirically examine the theoretical inferences.

Results: Populations migrating from Wuhan to other cities increased the initial number of latently infected cases in these cities, raising the number of confirmed cases. Hence, implementing social distancing between the susceptible and infected populations could effectively lower the number of infected cases. Using data from Baidu's real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system, the empirical results revealed that an increase of 1000 persons migrating from Wuhan raised the number of confirmed cases by 4.82 persons.

Conclusion: This study confirmed the positive association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, China's pandemic prevention and control measures are discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Novel coronavirus disease; Pandemic; Prevention and control; SEIRD model; Wuhan.