Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmission

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Oct 29;14(10):e0008719. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008719. eCollection 2020 Oct.

Abstract

An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. Here we examine the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst adjusting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to 4.32 additional cases per 100,000 individuals in Thailand per month, which equates to 170 more cases per month in the Bangkok province (95% CI: 100-242) and 2008 cases in the country as a whole (95% CI: 1170-2846). Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust to model misspecification, and variable addition and omission. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Dengue / epidemiology
  • Dengue / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Malaysia / epidemiology
  • Mosquito Vectors
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Singapore / epidemiology
  • Social Isolation
  • Thailand / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Singapore Ministry of Health’s National Medical Research Council under the Centre Grant Programme - Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre (NMRC/CG/C026/2017\_NUHS) and grant COVID19RF-004. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.