Brucellosis has re-emerged in China in recent years, resulting in an increasing health burden and economic losses for humans and the livestock industries. This study integrated data from human and livestock brucellosis surveillance systems to explore the changing epidemiology of brucellosis from 2004 to 2018 in China. A total of 524,980 human cases of brucellosis were reported, with the average annual incidence in humans being significantly higher for the period 2012-2018 than for 2004-2011 (3.3 vs. 1.9 per 100,000 residents). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted an upward trend in the monthly incidence of brucellosis in humans in 2019 and 2020. Characteristics including being male, aged 45-54 years, working in the livestock industries, and residing in the northern provinces of China increased the risk of people contracting brucellosis. The percentage of provinces with infected people increased from 67.7% (21/31) in 2004 to all provinces in 2018. A total of 29,115 outbreaks were reported in livestock from 2004 to 2018, with 443,883 seropositive animals although only 381,224 (85.9%) of these were culled. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in humans was strongly positively correlated (r = .539, p < .001) with the number of outbreaks of brucellosis in livestock reported 3 months prior to the human cases. At the provincial level, the annual incidence of brucellosis in humans was significantly positively correlated with the sheep population (r = .786, p < .01). In conclusion, brucellosis in humans and livestock has been spreading in mainland China in the past decade. A more active surveillance of brucellosis in both livestock and humans in China should be coordinated and adjusted by adopting an evidence-based 'One Health' approach, particularly in high-risk regions and livestock industries.
Keywords: autoregressive integrated moving average; brucellosis; correlation analysis; risk factors; spatio-temporal distribution.
© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.