Background: Since December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected over 50 000 people in Wuhan, China. However, the number of daily infection cases, hospitalization rate, lag time from onset to diagnosis date and their associations with measures introduced to slow down the spread of COVID-19 have not been fully explored.
Methods: This study recruited 6872 COVID-19 patients in the Wuchang district, Wuhan. All of the patients had an onset date from 21 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. The overall and weekly hospitalization rate and lag time from onset to diagnosis date were calculated. The number of daily infections was estimated by the back-projection method based on the number of daily onset cases. Their association with major government reactions and measures was analyzed narratively.
Results: The overall hospitalization rate was 45.9% (95% CI 44.7 to 47.1%) and the mean lag time from onset to diagnosis was 11.1±7.4 d. The estimated infection curve was constructed for the period from 14 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. Raising public awareness regarding self-protecting and social distancing, as well as the provision of timely testing and inpatient services, were coincident with the decline in the daily number of infections.
Conclusion: Early public awareness, early identification and early quarantine, supported by appropriate infrastructure, are important elements for containing the spread of COVID-19 in the community.
Keywords: COVID-19; back-projection; coronavirus disease; epidemic curve.
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.