Analysis of the stochastic model for predicting the novel coronavirus disease

Ndolane Sene

doi:10.1186/s13662-020-03025-w

Analysis of the stochastic model for predicting the novel coronavirus disease

Adv Differ Equ. 2020;2020(1):568. doi: 10.1186/s13662-020-03025-w. Epub 2020 Oct 8.

Author

Ndolane Sene¹

Affiliation

¹ Laboratoire Lmdan, Département de Mathématiques de la Décision, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et Gestion, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, BP 5683 Dakar Fann, Senegal.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to predict the novel coronavirus. Due to the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus disease in the world, we add to the deterministic model of the coronavirus the terms of the stochastic perturbations. In other words, we consider in this paper a stochastic model to predict the novel coronavirus. The equilibrium points of the deterministic model have been determined, and the reproduction number of our deterministic model has been implemented. The asymptotic behaviors of the solutions of the stochastic model around the equilibrium points have been studied. The numerical investigations and the graphical representations obtained with the novel stochastic model are made using the classical stochastic numerical scheme.

Keywords: Equilibrium points; Novel coronavirus; Stochastic numerical scheme.