Superposition of COVID-19 waves, anticipating a sustained wave, and lessons for the future

Bioessays. 2020 Dec;42(12):e2000178. doi: 10.1002/bies.202000178. Epub 2020 Nov 16.

Abstract

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; data science; data-driven; policy decisions; strategy.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Asia / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / diagnosis
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 Testing / methods
  • COVID-19 Testing / standards
  • COVID-19 Testing / trends
  • Demography / trends
  • Economic Recession
  • Employment / organization & administration
  • Employment / standards
  • Employment / trends
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Infection Control / methods
  • Infection Control / organization & administration*
  • Infection Control / standards
  • Infection Control / trends*
  • Pandemics*
  • Public Health Administration / methods
  • Public Health Administration / standards
  • Public Health Administration / trends
  • SARS-CoV-2 / physiology
  • Travel-Related Illness
  • United States / epidemiology