The ability of current tests to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) complicating diabetes is limited. This study investigated the prognostic utility of a novel blood test, PromarkerD, for predicting future renal function decline in individuals with type 2 diabetes from the CANagliflozin CardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS). PromarkerD scores were measured at baseline in 3568 CANVAS participants (n = 1195 placebo arm, n = 2373 canagliflozin arm) and used to predict incident CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73m2 during follow-up in those above this threshold at baseline) and eGFR decline ≥30% during the 4 years from randomization. Biomarker concentrations (apolipoprotein A-IV (apoA4), CD5 antigen-like (CD5L/AIM) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) measured by mass spectrometry were combined with clinical data (age, serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, eGFR) using a previously defined algorithm to provide PromarkerD scores categorized as low-, moderate- or high-risk. The participants (mean age 63 years, 33% females) had a median PromarkerD score of 2.9%, with 70.5% categorized as low-risk, 13.6% as moderate-risk and 15.9% as high-risk for developing incident CKD. After adjusting for treatment, baseline PromarkerD moderate-risk and high-risk scores were increasingly prognostic for incident CKD (odds ratio 5.29 and 13.52 versus low-risk, respectively; both p < 0.001). Analysis of the PromarkerD test system in CANVAS shows the test can predict clinically significant incident CKD in this multi-center clinical study but had limited utility for predicting eGFR decline ≥30%.
Keywords: biomarkers; chronic kidney disease; diabetic nephropathy; prognosis; renal decline; risk prediction; type 2 diabetes.