Predicting 2-Day Mortality of Thrombocytopenic Patients Based on Clinical Laboratory Data Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Background: Clinical laboratories have traditionally used a single critical value for thrombocytopenic events. This system, however, could lead to inaccuracies and inefficiencies, causing alarm fatigue and compromised patient safety.

Objectives: This study shows how machine learning (ML) models can provide auxiliary information for more accurate identification of critical thrombocytopenic patients when compared with the traditional notification system.

Research design: A total of 50,505 patients' platelet count and other 26 additional laboratory datasets of each thrombocytopenic event were used to build prediction models. Conventional logistic regression and ML methods, including random forest (RF), artificial neural network, stochastic gradient descent (SGD), naive Bayes, support vector machine, and decision tree, were applied to build different models and evaluated.

Results: Models using logistic regression [area under the curve (AUC)=0.842], RF (AUC=0.859), artificial neural network (AUC=0.867), or SGD (AUC=0.826) achieved the desired average AUC>0.80. The highest positive predictive value was obtained by the SGD model in the testing data (72.2%), whereas overall, the RF model showed higher sensitivity and total positive predictions in both the training and testing data and outperformed other models. The positive 2-day mortality predictive rate of RF methods is as high as 46.1%-significantly higher than using the traditional notification system at only 14.8% [χ2(1)=81.66, P<0.001].

Conclusions: This study demonstrates a data-driven ML approach showing a significantly more accurate 2-day mortality prediction after a critical thrombocytopenic event, which can reinforce the accuracy of the traditional notification system.