Conditional Survival in Uveal Melanoma

Abstract

Purpose: To investigate conditional survival in patients with uveal melanoma in the United States.

Design: Cohort study.

Participants: Patients were identified using International Classification of Disease for Oncology, Third Edition, codes for both morphologic features (melanoma, 8720-8790) and site (retina, C69.2; choroid, C69.3; and ciliary body, C69.4) from 1975 through 2011 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database SEER 18.

Methods: Observed metastasis-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional metastasis-free survival (cMFS) and conditional overall survival were calculated based on the observed MFS and OS. Relative survival also was calculated using the actuarial method. Survival to 5 and 10 years after diagnosis were calculated, conditioned on various numbers of years already survived.

Main outcome measures: Conditional MFS, conditional OS, and conditional relative survival.

Results: A total of 6863 cases of uveal melanoma were identified. Median follow-up among survivors was 11 years. During follow-up, 3883 patients died of any cause, and of these, 2131 deaths were the result of metastatic uveal melanoma. The nonconditional 5-year MFS was 80%. After surviving 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after diagnosis, the 5-year cMFS estimates increased to 82%, 87%, 92%, and 96%, respectively. The nonconditional MFS at 10 years was estimated to be 69%. After having survived 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 years after diagnosis, the 10-year cMFS estimates increased to 87%, 90%, 93%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. This result pattern was confirmed with estimates of relative survival.

Conclusions: Conditional survival estimates of uveal melanoma improve with time since primary diagnosis. Among patients who already have survived for at least 5 years, 10-year conditional survival rates are high. Conditional survival analysis can provide specific guidance for counselling patients.

Keywords: Conditional survival; Uveal melanoma.