The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has greatly affected demand for imaging services, with marked reductions in demand for elective imaging and image-guided interventional procedures. To guide radiology planning and recovery from this unprecedented impact, three recovery models were developed to predict imaging volume over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) a long-term volume model with three scenarios based on prior disease outbreaks and other historical analogues, to aid in long-term planning when the pandemic was just beginning; (2) a short-term volume model based on the supply-demand approach, leveraging increasingly available COVID-19 data points to predict examination volume on a week-to-week basis; and (3) a next-wave model to estimate the impact from future COVID-19 surges. The authors present these models as techniques that can be used at any stage in an unpredictable pandemic timeline.
Keywords: COVID-19; predictive models; recovery planning; supply and demand.
Copyright © 2020 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.