Florida ranks first among US states in fresh-market tomato production with annual production exceeding one-third of the total annual production in the country. Although tomato is a signature crop in Florida, current and future ambient temperatures could impose a major production challenge, especially during the fall growing season. This problem is increasingly becoming an important concern among tomato growers in south Florida, but studies addressing these concerns have not been conducted until now. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the impacts of the present ambient temperature conditions and planting dates on tomato productivity in south Florida. The study was conducted using crop simulation model CROPGRO-Tomato of DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agricultural Transfer) version 4.7. Five treatments were evaluated, and included AT (simulated treatment using 14 years of actual daily weather conditions at the study location) while other treatments were conducted based on a percentage (-20%, -10%, +10%, +20%) of AT to simulate cooler and warmer temperature regimes. The results suggested that under the current temperature conditions during the fall growing season in south Florida, average tomato yield was up to 29% lower compared to the cooler temperature regimes. Tomato yield further decreased by 52% to 85% at air temperatures above the current condition. Yield reduction under high temperature was primarily due to lower fruit production. Contrary to yield, both tomato biomass accumulation and leaf area index increased with increase in temperature. Results also indicated that due to changes in air temperature pattern, tomato yield increased as planting date increased from July to December. Therefore, planting date modification during the fall season from the current July-September to dates between November and December will reduce the impacts of heat stress and increase tomato productivity in south Florida.
Keywords: climate change; heat stress; planting dates; temperature simulation; tomato yield.