Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a risk score utilizing C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin to better predict a clinical infection for patients with obstructive urolithiasis. Methods: A retrospective review was performed of patients presenting to the emergency room from December 2017 to February 2019 and who underwent upper urinary tract decompression due to concern for infection in the setting of obstructing urolithiasis. Over 30 clinical parameters were assessed and a composite risk score was created. Univariate and multivariate, forward, stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of true urinary tract infection (UTI). Results: Ninety-eight patients met inclusion criteria, of which a true UTI was identified in 50 (51%). The standard model of serum white blood cells >15 or temperature >38°C had an area under curve (AUC) of only 0.67 to predict UTI. A multivariable regression-based 4-point risk score (1 point for each of the following: positive urinary Gram stain, perinephric fat stranding on CT, serum CRP >21.95, and serum procalcitonin >0.36) had an AUC of 0.91 to predict UTI. Individually, these components had an AUC of 0.68, 0.68, 0.80, and 0.77, respectively. The chances of confirmed UTI were 8%, 11%, 68%, and 100% for risk scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 to 4, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Only 50% of patients with a suspected UTI and an obstructing stone were ultimately confirmed to have a UTI. A risk score consisting of Gram stain, perinephric fat stranding, CRP, and procalcitonin can improve UTI prediction and warrants further study.
Keywords: infection; inflammatory markers; predictive model; urolithiasis.