Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

C E Nedelciu; K V Ragnarsdottir; P Schlyter; I Stjernquist

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426

Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Glob Food Sec. 2020 Sep:26:100426. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426. Epub 2020 Sep 15.

Authors

C E Nedelciu^{1

2}, K V Ragnarsdottir², P Schlyter³, I Stjernquist¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Sweden.
² Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland.
³ Department of Spatial Planning, Blekinge Institute for Technology, Sweden.

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

Keywords: Fertilizers; Food security; Phosphorus; Population growth; Regional; System dynamics modelling.