Background: This study developed and validated a dynamic prediction model for survival after ischaemic stroke up to 1 year.
Methods: Patients with stroke (n = 425) who participated in a sub-study (2002-2004) from the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) were selected for model derivation. The model was developed using the extended Cox model with time-dependent covariates. The two temporal validation cohorts from SLSR included 1735 (1995-2002) and 2155 patients (2004-2016). The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were assessed.
Results: Six strong predictors were used in the model, namely, age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity and pre-stroke and post-stroke disabilities. The c-statistics was 0.822 at 1 year in the derivation cohort. The model had a fair performance with prognostic accuracies of 77%-83% in the validation 1 cohort and 70%-75% in the validation 2 cohort. A good calibration was observed in the derivation cohort.
Conclusion: The proposed model can accurately predict survival up to 1 year after ischaemic stroke.
Keywords: Clinical prediction; Mortality; Prognosis; Stroke.
Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.