Background: Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKS) was recommended for treating patients with breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM), but predictions of the existing prognostic models for therapeutic responsiveness vary substantially.
Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment clinical, MRI radiologic, and texture features in patients with BCBM undergoing GKS.
Material and methods: The data of 81 BCBMs in 44 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Progressive disease was defined as an increase of at least 20% in the longest diameter of the target lesion or the presence of new intracranial lesions on contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CE-T1W) imaging. Radiomic features were extracted from pretreatment CE-T1W images, T2-weighted (T2W) images, and ADC maps. Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with BCBM-specific progression-free survival (PFS). A nomogram was constructed and its calibration ability was assessed.
Results: The cumulative BCBM-specific PFS was 52.27% at six months and 11.36% at one year, respectively. Age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.06; P = 0.004) and CE-T1W-based kurtosis (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.57-0.92; P = 0.008) were the independent predictors. The combination of CE-T1W-based kurtosis and age displayed a higher C-index (C-index 0.70; 95% CI 0.63-0.77) than did CE-T1W-based kurtosis (C-index 0.65; 95% CI 0.57-0.73) or age (C-index 0.63; 95% CI 0.56-0.70) alone. The nomogram based on the combinative model provided a better performance over age (P < 0.05). The calibration curves elucidated good agreement between prediction and observation for the probability of 7- and 12-month BCBM-specific PFS.
Conclusion: Pretreatment CE-T1W-based kurtosis combined with age could improve prognostic ability in patients with BCBM undergoing GKS.
Keywords: Gamma Knife radiosurgery; Metastases; nomogram; prognosis; radiomics.