Purpose Unmet rehabilitation needs are common. We therefore developed a risk score using administrative data to assess the risk of permanent work disability. Such a score may support the identification of individuals with a high likelihood of receiving a disability pension. Methods Our sample was a random and stratified 1% sample of individuals aged 18-65 years paying pension contributions. From administrative records, we extracted sociodemographic data and data about employment and welfare benefits covering 2010-2012. Our outcome was a pension due to work disability that was requested between January 2013 and December 2017. We developed a comprehensive logistic regression model and used the model estimates to determine the risk score. Results We included 352,140 individuals and counted 6,360 (1.8%) disability pensions during the 5-year follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.839 (95% CI 0.834 to 0.844) for the continuous risk score. Using a threshold of ≥ 50 points (20.2% of all individuals), we correctly classified 80.6% of all individuals (sensitivity: 71.5%; specificity: 80.8%). Using ≥ 60 points (9.9% of all individuals), we correctly classified 90.3% (sensitivity: 54.9%; specificity: 91.0%). Individuals with 50 to < 60 points had a five times higher risk of a disability pension compared to individuals with low scores, individuals with ≥ 60 points a 17 times higher risk. Conclusions The risk score offers an opportunity to screen for people with a high risk of permanent work disability.
Keywords: Employment; Longitudinal studies; Needs assessment; Pensions; Rehabilitation; Social welfare.