Machine learning improves the prediction of febrile neutropenia in Korean inpatients undergoing chemotherapy for breast cancer

Sci Rep. 2020 Sep 9;10(1):14803. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-71927-6.

Abstract

Febrile neutropenia (FN) is one of the most concerning complications of chemotherapy, and its prediction remains difficult. This study aimed to reveal the risk factors for and build the prediction models of FN using machine learning algorithms. Medical records of hospitalized patients who underwent chemotherapy after surgery for breast cancer between May 2002 and September 2018 were selectively reviewed for development of models. Demographic, clinical, pathological, and therapeutic data were analyzed to identify risk factors for FN. Using machine learning algorithms, prediction models were developed and evaluated for performance. Of 933 selected inpatients with a mean age of 51.8 ± 10.7 years, FN developed in 409 (43.8%) patients. There was a significant difference in FN incidence according to age, staging, taxane-based regimen, and blood count 5 days after chemotherapy. The area under the curve (AUC) built based on these findings was 0.870 on the basis of logistic regression. The AUC improved by machine learning was 0.908. Machine learning improves the prediction of FN in patients undergoing chemotherapy for breast cancer compared to the conventional statistical model. In these high-risk patients, primary prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor could be considered.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • Antineoplastic Agents / adverse effects
  • Antineoplastic Agents / therapeutic use
  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols
  • Breast Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Bridged-Ring Compounds / adverse effects
  • Bridged-Ring Compounds / therapeutic use
  • Febrile Neutropenia / epidemiology*
  • Female
  • Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor / metabolism
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Inpatients / statistics & numerical data
  • Logistic Models
  • Machine Learning
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Republic of Korea
  • Risk Factors
  • Taxoids / adverse effects
  • Taxoids / therapeutic use

Substances

  • Antineoplastic Agents
  • Bridged-Ring Compounds
  • Taxoids
  • Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor
  • taxane