The vegetation index (VI) has been successfully used to monitor the growth and to predict the yield of agricultural crops. In this paper, a long-term observation was conducted for the yield prediction of maize using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and estimations of chlorophyll contents using SPAD-502. A new vegetation index termed as modified red blue VI (MRBVI) was developed to monitor the growth and to predict the yields of maize by establishing relationships between MRBVI- and SPAD-502-based chlorophyll contents. The coefficients of determination (R2s) were 0.462 and 0.570 in chlorophyll contents' estimations and yield predictions using MRBVI, and the results were relatively better than the results from the seven other commonly used VI approaches. All VIs during the different growth stages of maize were calculated and compared with the measured values of chlorophyll contents directly, and the relative error (RE) of MRBVI is the lowest at 0.355. Further, machine learning (ML) methods such as the backpropagation neural network model (BP), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme learning machine (ELM) were adopted for predicting the yields of maize. All VIs calculated for each image captured during important phenological stages of maize were set as independent variables and the corresponding yields of each plot were defined as dependent variables. The ML models used the leave one out method (LOO), where the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 2.157, 1.099, 1.146, and 1.698 (g/hundred grain weight) for BP, SVM, RF, and ELM. The mean absolute errors (MAEs) were 1.739, 0.886, 0.925, and 1.356 (g/hundred grain weight) for BP, SVM, RF, and ELM, respectively. Thus, the SVM method performed better in predicting the yields of maize than the other ML methods. Therefore, it is strongly suggested that the MRBVI calculated from images acquired at different growth stages integrated with advanced ML methods should be used for agricultural- and ecological-related chlorophyll estimation and yield predictions.
Keywords: UAV/UAS; chlorophyll contents; machine learning; maize; yield predictions.