How sure are you? A web-based application to confront imperfect detection of respiratory pathogens in bighorn sheep

PLoS One. 2020 Sep 8;15(9):e0237309. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237309. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

The relationships between host-pathogen population dynamics in wildlife are poorly understood. An impediment to progress in understanding these relationships is imperfect detection of diagnostic tests used to detect pathogens. If ignored, imperfect detection precludes accurate assessment of pathogen presence and prevalence, foundational parameters for deciphering host-pathogen dynamics and disease etiology. Respiratory disease in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) is a significant impediment to their conservation and restoration, and effective management requires a better understanding of the structure of the pathogen communities. Our primary objective was to develop an easy-to-use and accessible web-based Shiny application that estimates the probability (with associated uncertainty) that a respiratory pathogen is present in a herd and its prevalence given imperfect detection. Our application combines the best-available information on the probabilities of detection for various respiratory pathogen diagnostic protocols with a hierarchical Bayesian model of pathogen prevalence. We demonstrated this application using four examples of diagnostic tests from three herds of bighorn sheep in Montana. For instance, one population with no detections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae (PCR assay) still had an 6% probability of the pathogen being present in the herd. Similarly, the apparent prevalence (0.32) of M. ovipneumoniae in another herd was a substantial underestimate of estimated true prevalence (0.46: 95% CI = [0.25, 0.71]). The negative bias of naïve prevalence increased as the probability of detection of testing protocols worsened such that the apparent prevalence of Mannheimia haemolytica (culture assay) in a herd (0.24) was less than one third that of estimated true prevalence (0.78: 95% CI = [0.43, 0.99]). We found a small difference in the estimates of the probability that Mannheimia spp. (culture assay) was present in one herd between the binomial sampling approach (0.24) and the hypergeometric approach (0.22). Ignoring the implications of imperfect detection and sampling variation for assessing pathogen communities in bighorn sheep can result in spurious inference on pathogen presence and prevalence, and potentially poorly informed management decisions. Our Shiny application makes the rigorous assessment of pathogen presence, prevalence and uncertainty straightforward, and we suggest it should be incorporated into a new paradigm of disease monitoring.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Animals, Wild / microbiology*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Internet
  • Mannheimia haemolytica / isolation & purification
  • Montana
  • Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae / isolation & purification
  • Pasteurellaceae Infections / epidemiology
  • Pasteurellaceae Infections / veterinary*
  • Pneumonia, Mycoplasma / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Mycoplasma / veterinary*
  • Prevalence
  • Probability
  • Sheep
  • Sheep Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Sheep, Bighorn / microbiology*
  • Software*

Grants and funding

This study was funded by the US Fish and Wildlife Service through the Pittman-Robertson Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Act (grant #s W-159-R & W-166-SI; https://www.fws.gov/wsfrprograms/Subpages/GrantPrograms/WR/WR.htm), the Wyoming Wildlife Foundation (through the Wyoming Governor's Big Game License Coalition; http://wyomingwildlifefoundation.org), Montana Department of Fish Wildlife and Parks (http://fwp.mt.gov), Wyoming Game and Fish Department (https://wgfd.wyo.gov), Montana and Wyoming chapters of the Wild Sheep Foundation (https://www.wildsheepfoundation.org), and Canon Inc. USA (through Yellowstone Park Foundation; https://www.yellowstone.org/).