Early Detection and Diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder: Why Is It So Difficult?

Abstract

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects approximately 2% of children in the United States (US). Therapeutic interventions are most effective if applied early, yet diagnosis often remains delayed, partly because the diagnosis is based on identifying abnormal behaviors that may not emerge until the disorder is well established. Universal screening has been recommended by the America Academy of Pediatrics at 18 and 24 months yet studies show low compliance by pediatricians and the US Preventive Services Task Force does not support universal screening. To better understand the limitations of universal screening this article looks at the performance of screening tests given the prevalence of ASD. Specifically, although the sensitivity and specificity of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, Revised with Follow-up, the de facto screening tool, exceeds 90%, the relatively low prevalence of ASD in the general population (∼2%) results in a positive predictive value of about 33%, resulting in only 1 of 3 children identified by the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, Revised with Follow-up actually having ASD. To mitigate this issue, the America Academy of Pediatrics has recently recommended the use of a Level 2 screener after failing a Level 1 screener, before referring children on for a full comprehensive evaluation for ASD. In this way, a series of screening tools are used to enrich the population of children referred for further evaluation so fewer without an ASD diagnosis are evaluated. We have developed a program to train pediatricians to utilize these instruments as well as learn to diagnose ASD so children can effectively be referred for appropriate services at the front lines. Given the current burden on the medical system with the diagnosis and evaluation of children with ASD, it is important to create efficient systems for screening children which can best identify those most likely to have ASD. Developing methods to identify those children most at risk for developing ASD, either through consideration of medical or family history or through the use of biomarkers, may be helpful in identifying the children that require increased surveillance and those that do not need screening.