Vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change: Thirty-year trend analysis and prospective prediction for the coastal regions of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

Davood Mafi-Gholami; Abolfazl Jaafari; Eric K Zenner; Akram Nouri Kamari; Dieu Tien Bui

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140305

Vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change: Thirty-year trend analysis and prospective prediction for the coastal regions of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 1:741:140305. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140305. Epub 2020 Jun 20.

Authors

Davood Mafi-Gholami¹, Abolfazl Jaafari², Eric K Zenner³, Akram Nouri Kamari⁴, Dieu Tien Bui⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran. Electronic address: d.mafigholami@nres.sku.ac.ir.
² Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: jaafari@rifr-ac.ir.
³ Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA. Electronic address: eric.zenner@psu.edu.
⁴ Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: a.nourikamari@ut.ac.ir.
⁵ Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Viet Nam. Electronic address: buitiendieu@duytan.edu.vn.

PMID: 32887018
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140305

Abstract

This study relates changes in social vulnerability of 20 counties on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) over a 30-year period (1988-2017) to changing socio-economic conditions and environmental (climate) hazard. Social vulnerability in 2030, 2040 and 2050 is predicted based on the RCP8.5 climate change scenario that projects drought intensities and rising sea levels. Social vulnerability was based on the three dimensions of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity using 18 socio-economic and five climate indicators identified by experts. All but one indicator related very strongly to the dimension it sought to represent. Despite improvements in adaptive capacity over time, social vulnerability increased between 1988 and 2017 and rates of change accelerated after change point years that occurred between 1998 and 2002 in most counties. Extrapolating past changes of each indicator over time enabled forecasts of social vulnerability in the future. While social variability decreased between 2017 and 2030, it increased again between 2030 and 2050. The lowest future social vulnerability is expected along the eastern PG coast, the greatest along the western PG and the GO. The worsening of socio-economic indicators contributed to increased sensitivity, and increased drought intensities plus the expected rise in sea levels will lead to social vulnerabilities in 2050 comparable to present levels. Between 1.4 and 1.7 M people will live in areas that are likely submerged by water in the future. About 80% of these people live in six counties with variable social vulnerabilities. While counties with lower social variabilities might be better able to cope with the challenges posed by climate change, adaptation programs to enhance the resilience of the residents in these and the remaining counties along the PG and the GO need to be implemented soon to avoid uncontrolled mass migration of millions of people from the region.

Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Coastal hazard; Demographic indicators, RCP 8.5; Vulnerability.