Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

Danish Rafiq; Suhail Ahmad Suhail; Mohammad Abid Bazaz

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014

Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct:139:110014. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014. Epub 2020 Jun 19.

Authors

Danish Rafiq¹, Suhail Ahmad Suhail¹, Mohammad Abid Bazaz¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar 190006, India.

Abstract

In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.

Keywords: Pandemic; SARS-CoV-2; System identification.