Background and aims: The value of hepatocyte regeneration in predicting the outcomes of hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is not fully assessed. The present study was aimed at establishing a novel scoring system to predict patients' outcomes within 3 months by applying serological indicators of hepatic regeneration and liver injury.
Methods: Patients with chronic hepatitis B who had a rapid deterioration were investigated. Patients were observed for 90 days, and the endpoint of follow-up was death or liver transplantation. Serum parameters were estimated on the diagnosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent prognostic factors and create a novel prognostic scoring system, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the performance of the model.
Results: A total of 308 patients with HBV-ACLF were incorporated and divided into the training cohort (n = 206) and testing cohort (n = 102) randomly. Creatine (Cre), age, total bilirubin (TBil), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and international normalized ratio (INR) were found to be independent prognostic factors. According to the results of Cox regression analysis, a new prognostic model (we named it the TACIA score) was calculated. The areas under ROC (AUROC) for the new model were 0.861 and 0.763 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively, and patients with lower TACIA scores (<4.34) would survive longer (P < 0.001).
Conclusions: A pertinent prognostic scoring system for patients with HBV-ACLF was established in our study, and the novel model could predict patients' short-term survival effectively.
Copyright © 2020 Xiaoping Wang et al.