Analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry

PLoS One. 2020 Aug 19;15(8):e0237827. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237827. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

It is vast significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of herbivorous animal husbandry industry based on the context of China's agriculture pursuing high-quality development. In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the layout of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry and its influencing factors based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Durbin model with data from 1980 to 2017. The results show that there are significant positive autocorrelation characteristics of "high-high" aggregation and "low-low" aggregation in the Chinese herbivorous animal husbandry industry. To be specific, in the past four decades, the spatial distribution center of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry has moved towards the northeast, crossing the boundary between agriculture and animal husbandry in China, presenting a clear trend of moving from pastoral area to agricultural area; the gradual narrowing of the spatial distribution range indicates the gradually increased degree of aggregation within the industry; the east-west stretch of spatial distribution has been strengthened, and the azimuth angle shows clockwise change, suggesting that the industrial expansion in the northeast-southwest direction is prominent; the influencing factors of changes in the spatial distribution of the industry reveal that the quantity and production capacity of productive land, people's income and living standards, and the level of mechanization will promote the development of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry, and are essential factors influencing industrial distribution and transfer, while policy factor has small or even not significant impact on industrial aggregation, reflecting that the policy has not played the expected role, and policy support needs to be further intensified.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture
  • Animal Husbandry*
  • Animals
  • China
  • Factor Analysis, Statistical
  • Geography
  • Herbivory / physiology*
  • Industry*
  • Models, Econometric
  • Policy
  • Regression Analysis
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis*
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

The research presented here was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41871184 and 41401203), The Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (Program Nos. ASTIP-IAED-2020-01 and CAAS-ZDRW202012), Central Research Institutes of Basic Research and Public Service Special Operations (Award No. 161005202001-2) to GW. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.