Performance of the Steno type 1 risk engine for cardiovascular disease prediction in Italian patients with type 1 diabetes

Abstract

Background and aims: Premature cardiovascular disease cause excess mortality in type 1 diabetes (T1D). The Steno T1D Risk Engine was developed and validated in northern European countries but its validity in other populations is unknown. We evaluated the performance of the Steno T1D Risk Engine in Italian patients with T1D.

Materials and methods: We included patients with T1D with a baseline visit between July 2013 and April 2014, who were free of cardiovascular disease and had complete information to estimate risk. The estimated cardiovascular risk score was compared with the 5-year rate of cardiovascular events by means of logistic regression.

Results: Among 223 patients (mean age 43 ± 13 years, 34.5% male, mean duration of diabetes 22 ± 12 years) the mean estimated cardiovascular risk at 5 years was 5.9% (95% C.I. 5.2-6.5%). At baseline, high estimated risk discriminated the presence of asymptomatic atherosclerosis better than microangiopathy, and was not associated with markers of inflammation or endothelial activation. After a mean follow-up of 4.7 ± 0.5 years, only 3 cardiovascular events were observed and nonetheless the risk score was significantly associated with their incidence (OR 1.22; 95% C.I. 1.08-1.39, p = 0.001). However, the observed event rate was significantly lower than the estimated one (3 vs 13; 95% C.I. 12-14; p < 0.001).

Conclusion: The Steno T1D Risk Score identified subjects with subclinical atherosclerosis and high cardiovascular risk in an Italian T1D population. However, the absolute risk was significantly overestimated. Further studies in larger population are needed to confirm these results.

Keywords: Observational; Risk prediction; Score; Stratification.