Rapid population growth and agricultural development are generating a considerable amount of effluents, which poses threats to the quality of rural water resources as well as sanitary conditions. However, with a range of rural wastewater treatment (WT) technologies available, one major problem facing the practitioners is which to choose as the most favorable option suited to specific areas. In this study, a novel decision-making framework is proposed to evaluate and select the optimal alternative in rural areas of Xi'an within multiple consecutive time periods. Firstly, an evaluation index system is constructed and picture fuzzy numbers (PFNs) are used to represent both evaluation levels and experts' refusal due to limitation of knowledge. Secondly, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is applied to derive weights of criteria, which enables experts to assign fuzzy numbers to express their preferences for comparison judgments. Thirdly, evidence theory is utilized to obtain the aggregated values from multiple time periods. Finally, based on the belief intervals obtained, sequencing batch reactor (A4) is determined as the optimal rural WT technology in Xi'an from 2006 to 2020, whereas the membrane bio-reactor (A2) is the last option. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is further validated by comparative analysis. This research can hopefully serve as useful guidance for the assessment of rural WT technologies in various regions.
Keywords: Evidence theory; Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process; Multi-period evaluation; Optimal selection; Picture fuzzy numbers; Rural wastewater treatment technologies.