Effect of technological progress on carbon emissions: New evidence from a decomposition and spatiotemporal perspective in China

Abstract

The continuously increasing carbon emissions have become a significant hurdle for global sustainable development. Technological progress is considered essential for controlling carbon emissions. However, previous literature has analyzed technological progress as a whole, largely ignoring its spatial spillovers. Therefore, our understanding of how technological progress influences carbon emissions is still limited. To fill this gap, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the effect of technological progress regarding carbon emissions by introducing a new framework that combines the slacks-based measure of the Malmquist-Luenberger index and the spatial dynamic model. Employing a Chinese provincial panel dataset for 2000-2016 as a case study, the conventional analysis indicates that both technological progress and its components have not played a significant role in decreasing carbon emissions. A further analysis using the spatial dynamic model suggests that the technological progress of neighbouring regions plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, the effect of efficiency change is stronger than that of technical change, which provides new evidence on how technological progress influences carbon emissions.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; Malmquist-Luenberger index; Slacks-based measure; Spatial dynamic model.