The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset

Abdelghafour Marfak; Doha Achak; Asmaa Azizi; Chakib Nejjari; Khalid Aboudi; Elmadani Saad; Abderraouf Hilali; Ibtissam Youlyouz-Marfak

doi:10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067

The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset

Data Brief. 2020 Jul 24:32:106067. doi: 10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067. eCollection 2020 Oct.

Authors

Abdelghafour Marfak^{1

2}, Doha Achak¹, Asmaa Azizi¹, Chakib Nejjari^{3

4}, Khalid Aboudi¹, Elmadani Saad¹, Abderraouf Hilali¹, Ibtissam Youlyouz-Marfak¹

Affiliations

¹ Laboratory of Health Sciences and Technology, Higher Institute of Health Sciences, Hassan First University of Settat, Morocco.
² Higher Institute of Nursing Professions and Health Technology of Rabat, Morocco.
³ Epidemiology, Clinical Research and Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy of Fez, University Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah, Fez, Morocco.
⁴ International School of Public Health, Mohammed VI University of Health Sciences (UM6SS), Casablanca, Morocco.

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statistical and mathematical models such as generalized logistic growth model [1], exponential model [2], segmented Poisson model [3], Susceptible-Infected-Recovered derivative models [4] and ARIMA [5] have been proposed and used. Herein, we proposed the use of the Hidden Markov Chain, which is a statistical system modelling transitions from one state (confirmed cases, recovered, active or death) to another according to a transition probability matrix to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in Morocco from March 14, to October 5, 2020. In our knowledge the Hidden Markov Chain was not yet applied to the COVID-19 spreading. Forecasts for the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered, active and death cases can help the Moroccan authorities to set up adequate protocols for managing the post-confinement due to COVID-19. We provided both the recorded and forecasted data matrices of the cumulative number of the confirmed, recovered and active cases through the range of the studied dates.

Keywords: COVID-19 spreading; Hidden Markov chain; Statistical modelling; forecast.