Accurate degradation tendency prediction (DTP) is vital for the secure operation of a pumped storage unit (PSU). However, the existing techniques and methodologies for DTP still face challenges, such as a lack of appropriate degradation indicators, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track the data fluctuation. In this paper, a hybrid model is proposed for the degradation tendency prediction of a PSU, which combines the integrated degradation index (IDI) construction and convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM). Firstly, the health model of a PSU is constructed with Gaussian process regression (GPR) and the condition parameters of active power, working head, and guide vane opening. Subsequently, for comprehensively quantifying the degradation level of PSU, an IDI is developed using entropy weight (EW) theory. Finally, combining the local feature extraction of the CNN with the time series representation of LSTM, the CNN-LSTM model is constructed to realize DTP. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the monitoring data collected from a PSU in China is taken as case studies. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained by the proposed model are 1.1588, 0.8994, 0.0918, and 0.9713, which can meet the engineering application requirements. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms other comparison models.
Keywords: Gaussian process regression; convolutional neural network; degradation tendency prediction; integrated degradation index; long and short memory neural network; pumped storage unit.