Global trends in the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017

Abstract

Background: The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer are high, with 5.90 new cases and 5.48 deaths per 100 000 people worldwide in 2017. The prognosis of esophageal cancer is poor, with an overall 5-year survival rate of less than 20%. Esophageal cancer in different geographical locations has different etiologies, and the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer continue to rise in some regions.

Methods: We collected incidence and mortality data by age and gender for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. And we used these data to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify trends in morbidity and mortality. Then we analyzed the gender- and age-specific incidence and mortality in esophageal cancer to targeted high-risk populations. Finally, we analyzed the correlation between the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and both the EAPC and social-demographic index (SDI), and we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Results: We found that Malawi, East Asia, and high-middle SDI regions had the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and ASMR, and the ASIR and ASMR in western Sub-Saharan Africa showed an upward trend. Our study also showed that the incidence and mortality in esophageal cancer were highest in men and in the 70+ years age group, and they presented a decreasing trend in most regions, but the 15-49 years age groups in Australasia, Caribbean, and Oceania and the 70+ years age group in High-Income North America, Oceania and high-SDI regions presented an increasing trend. There were significant negative associations between ASMR at baseline and EAPC and between ASMR and SDI in 2017.

Conclusion: By analyzing the global distribution of incidence and mortality in esophageal cancer, trends over time, and gender and age specificity, we can understand the heterogeneity of its global trends. This heterogeneity can help us to identify high-risk groupsand to provide clues for the exploration of the etiology and early prevention of the disease.

Keywords: age specificity; correlation; esophageal cancer; genderspecificity; geographic variation; temporal variation.