Many factors influence the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Here, we investigated the associations between socio-demographic characteristics and familial history with the 5-year incidence of T2DM in a family-based study conducted in Brazil. T2DM was defined as baseline fasting blood glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL or the use of any hypoglycaemic drug. We excluded individuals with T2DM at baseline or if they did not attend two examination cycles. After exclusions, we evaluated a sample of 1,125 participants, part of the Baependi Heart Study (BHS). Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to assess T2DM incident given different characteristics. At the 5-year follow-up, the incidence of T2DM was 6.7% (7.2% men and 6.3% women). After adjusting for age, sex, and education status, the model that combined marital and occupation status, skin color, and familial history of T2DM provided the best prediction for T2DM incidence. Only marital status was independently associated with T2DM incidence. Individuals that remained married, despite having significantly increased their weight, were significantly less likely to develop diabetes than their divorced counterparts.