Future thinking about social targets: The influence of prediction outcome on memory

Abstract

Work on future thinking suggests that people use what they know about the world (e.g., contents of memory) to make predictions about events to come, which reflects an adaptive use of memory. Less work, however, has examined whether the outcomes of these predictions-whether the outcome is consistent or inconsistent with predictions-influences memory. In two experiments, participants learned trait information about social targets and used that information to predict which of two behaviors social targets would be most likely to engage in: one behavior consistent with previously learned trait information about the target and the other behavior inconsistent. Participants then learned which behavior the social target actually performed (outcome) and then judged whether or not they expected that outcome (expectancy). Across both studies, prediction-consistent outcomes were better remembered than inconsistent ones, suggesting that participants relied on their existing representations of social targets when making memory judgments rather than incorporating inconsistent information into memory. Further, there was a memory advantage for prediction-inconsistent outcomes, but only when participants subjectively rated these outcomes as unexpected. Overall, these findings extend understanding of future thinking and suggest a reliable memory advantage for outcomes that are consistent with predictions.

Keywords: Future thinking; Prediction; Recognition; Social cognition.