Meteorological influences on PM2.5 and O3 trends and associated health burden since China's clean air actions

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 20:744:140837. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140837. Epub 2020 Jul 13.

Abstract

Stringent clean air actions have been implemented to improve air quality in China since 2013. In addition to anthropogenic emission abatements, the changes in air quality may be modulated also by meteorology. In this study, we developed multiple linear regression models to quantify meteorological influences on the trends in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) concentrations and associated health burden over three polluted regions of China, i.e., North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, and Fen-wei Plain during 2014-2018, with a novel focus on the contributions of the most influential meteorological factors to PM2.5 and O3 trends as well as the meteorological contributions to PM2.5- and O3-related mortality trends. The meteorology-driven PM2.5 (O3) trends for the three regions were -0.5~-2.0 (+0.7~+0.8) μg m-3 yr-1, contributing 10- 26% (12- 18%) of the observed five-year decreasing PM2.5 (increasing O3) trends. The decreased relative humidity (increased daytime planetary boundary layer height) was identified to be the most influential meteorological factor and explained 55% (42%) of the largest meteorology-driven PM2.5 (O3) trend among all regions and seasons. The meteorology-driven decreases in PM2.5 (increases in O3) concentrations led to overall decreases in PM2.5-related (increases in O3-related) mortalities with trends of -2.2~-7.4 (+0.5~+0.9) thousand yr-1 for the three regions, accounting for 10- 26% (15- 31%) of the total decreasing (increasing) trends in PM2.5-related (O3-related) mortalities. The results emphasize the important role of meteorology in PM2.5 and O3 air quality and associated health burden over China, and have important implications for China's air quality planning. In particular, more efforts in emission control should be taken to offset the adverse effects on ozone caused by meteorology.

Keywords: Health impact; Meteorological influence; Ozone; PM(2.5).