Summer UTCI variability in Poland in the twenty-first century

Abstract

The paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Poland in summer. Summer is the season with the highest intensity of tourism traffic that is why it is important to determine biometeorological conditions, especially in popular tourist destinations such as coastal, mountain and urban areas, in the times of climate changes. The analysis was based on data from 18 stations of IMGW-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute), distributed evenly in the territory of the country, and representing all eight bioclimatic regions. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and cloudiness at 12 UTC from summer months: June, July and August from the years 2001-2018. Thermoneutral zone was the most frequently occurring UTCI class in Poland. It was recorded during 56-75% of summer days (with the exception of mountain stations, where it occurred on 30-35% of days). Moderate heat stress is the second most frequently occurring category with a frequency from 18 to 29% with the exception of mountain and coastal areas. Extreme and very strong cold stress occurred particularly in high mountain stations, and was sporadically observed at the coast of the Baltic Sea; however, the occurrence of such conditions decreases, which if favourable for beach tourism. No cases of extreme heat stress were recorded in any of the stations. The most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions were characteristic of the Upland Region (IV), represented by Kraków and Sandomierz, where very strong heat stress occurred with a 10% frequency. This is a limitation for urban tourism in those regions. The highest UTCI values were recorded in Kraków on 17 July 2007 and 29 July 2005. The highest number of cases with strong and very strong heat stress was recorded in 2015 as a consequence of the heat wave observed in Poland in the first half of August. In the majority of the analysed stations, in the second half of the analysed period (2010-2018), an increase in the number of days with strong and very strong heat stress was observed in comparison with the first half of period (2001-2009). The highest frequency of such days was observed in July. Based on the data, there are 4 potential periods of occurrence of such days, with two most intense being 26. July-13 August and 14-22 July.

Keywords: Bioclimatic regions; Heat wave 2015; Poland; Summer; UTCI.