Background: The pack-year index, which is calculated by multiplying a smoking period by the number of cigarette packs smoked per day, is frequently used to investigate the risk of developing lung cancer. Notably, however, whether the smoking period or the number of packs per day is more predictive of postoperative prognosis remains unclear in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who receive curative lung resection.
Patients and methods: Initial screening included 2055 consecutive lung cancer patients who had underwent curative lung resection between 2000 and 2016 at a single center in Japan. Data from 1134 NSCLC patients with smoking history were ultimately analyzed. Time-dependent areas under the curve (AUCs) were used to compare diagnostic accuracy.
Results: On univariate analysis, the number of packs smoked per day was not a significant predictor of disease-free survival (DFS; p = 0.2387) or overall survival (OS; p = 0.1357). On multivariable analysis, smoking period was an independent predictor of DFS and OS (both p < 0.0001). Time-dependent smoking period AUCs were superior to those of number of packs smoked per day. On subgroup analyses, patients with a smoking period ≥ 40 years had significantly shorter DFS and OS than those with a smoking period of < 40 years, independent of sex, clinical stage, and histological type.
Conclusions: Smoking period was a significant prognostic indicator in NSCLC patients who underwent curative lung resection, which should be validated in further prospective and/or multicenter studies with large sample sizes.
Keywords: Non-small cell lung cancer; Prognosis; Smoking; Surgery.